US SEC Signals Big Push for Crypto Regulation in Early 2026

Week of December 16 - 22, 2025

Paul Atkins, Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has signaled a stronger push to regulate cryptocurrencies, with an emphasis on fostering innovation. An “Innovation Exemption” proposal is expected to be released in late January 2026, if internal processes proceed as planned.

U.S. senators are preparing to introduce a new crypto bill and aim to have it signed into law by the President in early 2026. Key provisions are expected to address the regulatory authority of agencies such as the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as well as clearer definitions to distinguish cryptocurrencies from securities.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has launched a “Digital Assets Pilot Program,” allowing Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and USDC to be used as collateral for derivatives traded on CFTC-regulated markets.

Standard Chartered has lowered its year-end 2025 Bitcoin price target to USD 100,000, down from its previous target of USD 200,000. However, its long-term target of USD 500,000 remains unchanged, though it has been pushed back to beyond 2030 from its original timeline.

BlackRock has filed to register the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF for listing on the Nasdaq. The new fund is designed to give investors exposure to both Ethereum’s price movements and staking rewards generated from staking ETH on the Ethereum network.

Spot Solana ETFs have recorded net inflows for seven consecutive days, totaling USD 53 million, despite Solana (SOL) having declined more than 55% from its peak. Among them, Bitwise’s BSOL fund has seen the strongest buying interest.

Strategy remains a constituent of the Nasdaq 100 Index, but continues to face pressure from MSCI, the global index provider, which is considering removing companies that hold more than 50% of their total assets in cryptocurrencies from its indices. Such a move could impact both the company’s stock price and broader sentiment in the Bitcoin market.

Technical Analysis

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Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading sideways amid a lack of new positive catalysts. Thin trading volumes toward year-end may keep prices range-bound as the market waits for greater clarity around Strategy’s stock situation next year. Key support is seen at USD 84,000, while resistance remains at USD 94,500, a level that needs to be decisively broken for the trend to turn bullish again.

Support: 2,700,000 THB / 84,000 USD
Resistance: 3,000,000 THB / 94,500 USD

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Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum (ETH) is showing a sideways-up trend, with the next target around USD 3,500 for a potential bullish reversal. The suggested strategy is to buy on dips, while setting a stop-loss if the price falls below the support level at USD 2,700.

Support: 88,000 THB / 2,700 USD
Resistance: 108,000 THB / 3,500 USD

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Terra (LUNA)

Terra (LUNA) delivered a 64.11% gain last week, but the price is starting to take a breather. A safe entry point is around USD 0.1230, with a profit-taking target at the resistance level of USD 0.2032. The focus here is short-term gains, as LUNA’s price is still highly volatile.

Support: 4 THB / 0.1230 USD
Resistance: 6.5 THB / 0.2032 USD

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Sky (SKY)

Sky (SKY) gained 10.70% over the past week, showing signs of recovering from a downtrend into an uptrend. A good entry point is around USD 0.0484, with a profit-taking target at USD 0.0635.

Support: 1.50 THB / 0.0484 USD
Resistance: 2.10 THB / 0.0635 USD

Investment Trends

Bitcoin (BTC) is moving sideways after being impacted by U.S. tech stock sell-offs and as the market awaits key economic data this week, following over a month of government shutdowns.

Starting Tuesday, December 16, the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report will be released, with the market expecting 119,000 new jobs and a 4.4% unemployment rate. On Wednesday, December 17, the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected at 3%.

Even though the most recent FOMC meeting cut interest rates as expected, the market now anticipates only one rate cut next year. However, weaker-than-expected economic data could increase the chance of more rate cuts in 2026.

Investors are also watching the Bank of Japan’s first rate hike in 10 years, which could trigger a reversal of the Yen Carry Trade and lead to some risk asset sell-offs, including cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, the potential removal of Strategy stocks from the MSCI index continues to put pressure on the market.

Investment strategy: Trading liquidity may start to drop as Christmas approaches, and prices could continue moving sideways through year-end. The suggested approach is long-term investing, buying at support levels of major coins, as short-term speculation may be difficult in this holiday period.

References

Topics: Crypto Weekly

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