U.S. Elections, and macroeconomic factors to shape the rest of 2024

Week of October 15-21, 2024

Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, has unveiled a policy to support cryptocurrency and help increase wealth among the Black communities. Data shows that over 20% of Black Americans own or have owned cryptocurrency, meaning this demographic group could benefit from regulations and investor protection.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, stated that the main impact on the cryptocurrency market in the last quarter of this year will stem from the U.S. presidential election, macroeconomic factors, and market-specific issues. If no unexpected negative factors arise, then Bitcoin (BTC) has the potential to reach $80,000 by the end of the year.

DappRadar reported a rapid growth in the use of decentralized applications (DApps) in the third quarter, with daily active digital wallets reaching 17.2 million, a 70% increase from the previous quarter. This surge is largely driven by DApps related to artificial intelligence (AI), which saw a 71% increase, while DeFi use decreased in the same period.

The International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) surveyed 24 countries and found that in 15 of those countries, 10% or more of retail investors own cryptocurrency. In six countries, the figure is as high as 30% or more, a significant increase from 2020 when half of the surveyed countries reported only 1% to 5% of investors owning cryptocurrency.

Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum (ETH), suggested reducing the staking requirement to a minimum of 1 ETH from the current 32 ETH, arguing that the current minimum may be a barrier for many who want to participate in the network. Lowering this requirement could allow more people to contribute to the network's security and governance, making Ethereum more decentralized.

The number of searches for the term “Bitcoin” on Google has hit a one-year low, while searches for “Memecoins” have surged to 77 out of 100 searches. Ki Young Ju, CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, predicts that interest in memecoins will break its all-time high again by the end of October.

MatrixPort reported that 7.51% of the global population are holding cryptocurrencies, and this number is expected to exceed 8% by 2025. The main driver for this increase is institutional investor participation, particularly from major players like BlackRock.

Technical Analysis

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Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged to test its resistance level again at $66,500, although it hasn't broken through this resistance yet. However, reaching a new high above $64,500 should be a sign of recovery. The target for this week is set above $70,000, while the RSI continues to show momentum that suggests further upward movement is possible.

Support: 2,000,000 THB / 62,000 USD
Resistance: 2,520,000 THB / 70,000 USD

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Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum (ETH) has surged alongside Bitcoin, testing its initial resistance level at $2,600. The trend suggests a potential test of the target resistance at $2,750 this week. If there is a pullback, the first support level will be at $2,500, and the next support level at $2,270. As long as it remains above these two support levels, the uptrend is likely to continue.

Support: 76,000 THB / 2,270 USD
Resistance: 96,000 THB / 2,750 USD

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Book Of Meme (BOME)

Book Of Meme (BOME) achieved 54.55% returns last week, while experiencing a sharp and rapid rise. It may be entering a pullback phase, so it's advisable to wait for a safer buying opportunity. The support level is assessed at $0.0085, where purchases can be made. Use this level as a stop-loss if necessary. The next target is its previous high of $0.014.

Support: 0.28 THB / 0.0085 USD
Resistance: 0.42 THB / 0.014 USD

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BabyDoge (BABYDOGE)

BabyDoge (BABYDOGE) surged 40.29% in the past week, with prices recovering but exhibiting high volatility. Look for buying opportunities at the support level of $0.0000000028, while the resistance target is set at the previous high of $0.0000000038. Given the high volatility of this token, disciplined trading will be essential.

Support: 0.000000090 THB / 0.0000000028 USD
Resistance: 0.00000014 THB / 0.0000000038 USD

Investment Trends

The U.S. economic data announced last Friday helped Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins recover. This event, combined with the clarity of Kamala Harris's proposed cryptocurrency policies and China's economic stimulus measures, have been significant drivers for Bitcoin's positive returns in October.

Historically, bullish markets often emerge in the months following a Bitcoin halving, starting around mid-October. Additionally, the U.S. stock market continues to set new highs, which positively supports the cryptocurrency market.

However, attention should be paid to the U.S. stocks Q3 earnings announcements, particularly from the technology sector. Strong growth figures could further bolster the cryptocurrency market.

Despite Bitcoin's strong upward movements, the Total3 index has only slightly retraced, indicating a strong recovery among altcoins as well—especially memecoins—which have outperformed the market. Signs of recovery are also emerging in DeFi tokens, particularly in Liquid Staking and Restaking protocols, which are delivering outstanding returns.

There are signs that the market will enter a bullish phase, allowing for increased investments, but without aggressively chasing prices. A suitable strategy would be to buy on dips when the prices pull back.