U.S. Government Could Sell $6.5 Billion in Bitcoin: Will it Happen?

Week of January 14-20, 2025

The U.S. Department of Justice has been cleared to sell over $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) seized from Silk Road, a federal judge ruled. Analysts believe this development may raise concerns among investors, even though Donald Trump’s policies do not include any plans to sell the Bitcoin currently held.

Rostin Behnam, Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is set to step down on January 20 following the appointment of a new administration. Behnam has consistently called for clearer regulations on cryptocurrencies, following numerous complaints received during his tenure at the CFTC.

Standard Chartered Bank is preparing to launch cryptocurrency trading services in Europe after obtaining a license to offer digital asset trading in Luxembourg. Initially, the bank will offer trading in Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH), with other coins expected to follow later this year.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a market sentiment indicator for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, has fallen to its lowest level since October 14, 2024, reaching 50 out of 100. This decline follows three months being in the “greed” and “extreme greed” zones, and is likely attributed to concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) may adopt a more stringent monetary policy in 2025, which could negatively impact Bitcoin and the overall market.

The Gelipeu Special Administrative Zone in Bhutan has announced plans to add digital assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB to its strategic reserves, alongside continued support for Bitcoin mining. Bhutan is currently the fifth-largest holder of Bitcoin, with a total of 12,211 BTC worth $1.2 billion.

CryptoQuant has noted that only a few altcoin projects may survive moving forward. They also analyzed that the ‘altcoin season’ may have shifted, as it may no longer be driven by money flowing from Bitcoin to altcoins. Instead, liquidity indicators and the growth of stablecoin trading pairs should be considered.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) 

The price trend for Bitcoin (BTC) remains weak, as indicated by the RSI, which continues to make lower lows. The price may revisit the support level at $90,500. If it falls below this level, it could test $86,000 next. To reverse this trend and make a new high, Bitcoin would need to break through the $103,000 level. If it fails to do so, the price will likely continue moving sideways.

• Support: 3,100,000 THB / 90,500 USD
• Resistance: 3,700,000 THB / 108,000 USD

Ether (ETH)

Ether (ETH) has seen a significant decline. Be cautious of a potential breakdown below the support level at $3,100, as this could reverse the short-term trend to a bearish one. However, if the price holds above this support, the next resistance level to watch is $3,700. A successful breakout above this level would signal a trend reversal to the upside, with the next target at $4,000.

• Support: 108,000 THB / 3,100 USD
• Resistance: 128,000 THB / 3,700 USD

Velo (VELO)

Velo (VELO) delivered 5.60% returns in the past week, outperforming the market average. The trend is currently moving in a slightly positive pattern, with the resistance target at $0.036. The support level is at $0.024. Look for buying opportunities near the support level.

• Support: 0.80 THB / 0.024 USD
• Resistance: 1.30 THB / 0.036 USD

Ripple (XRP)

Ripple (XRP) achieved 3.85% returns in the past week. The price has broken out of its previously sideways movement, and is now consolidating. The resistance target is at the previous high of $2.90. If the price pulls back, the support level to consider for buying is at $2.90. If it falls below this level, it is advisable to cut losses.

• Support: 65 THB / 1.90 USD
• Resistance: 100 THB / 2.90 USD

Investment Trends

Bitcoin (BTC) has been under renewed pressure due to the market's expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may delay further interest rate cuts this year. As a result, U.S. government bonds continue to rise, putting pressure on risky assets.

However, after the release of the Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment data, Bitcoin has managed to stay above its support levels, indicating that the market may have already adjusted to the delay in rate cuts. Market participants are now closely watching whether there will be immediate action on cryptocurrency policies following Donald Trump's official inauguration on January 20.

This week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be released on Wednesday, January 15. The market’s expectation is 2.9%, up from the previous month's 2.7%. If the figure comes in lower than expected, it could be positive for Bitcoin's price, while a higher reading could have a negative impact. The released data will influence the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting later this month.

In general, alternative coins (altcoins) have not yet managed to recover and are still waiting for Bitcoin to provide better returns before capital starts flowing back into altcoins. This is not yet a good time for short-term speculative trading. It is advised to focus on accumulating fundamentally strong coins for the long term.

Investment strategy: Focus on accumulating Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) at support levels, as well as solid altcoins. The market is awaiting clarity on both presidential and monetary policies from the U.S., so it’s best to delay short-term speculative trading for now.

References

• https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1877177432945422487 
• https://www.theblock.co/post/333427/cftc-chair-rostin-behnam-plans-to-step-down-following-continued-calls-to-regulate-crypto 
• https://bitcoinaddict.org/2025/01/12/us-bitcoin-reserve-profound-impact-adoption-coinshares/  
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/nation-state-bitcoin-adoption-drive-crypto-growth-fidelity 
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/financial-advisors-more-likely-invest-crypto-donald-trump-president-bitwise-survey 
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/standard-chartered-crypto-custody-luxembourg-license 
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-fear-greed-index-sentiment-falls-october-level 
• https://www.theblock.co/post/333637/bhutan-sar-btc-eth-bnb-strategic-reserves 
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/altcoin-market-cap-beneath-previous-high-analyst 

Disclaimers

• Cryptocurrencies and digital tokens are highly risky; investors may lose all investment money. Investors should study information carefully and make investments according to their own risk profile.
• Past returns or performance of digital assets do not guarantee future returns or performance. 

Remark: views, information, knowledge, and opinions are considered as content that come from individuals involved. They do not constitute an expression of Bitazza and its employees. Neither the email nor the content presented constitute investment advice.