Spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold more Bitcoin than Satoshi Nakamoto

Week of December 10-16, 2024

US President-elect Donald Trump has appointed David Sacks, the former Chief Operating Officer of PayPal, as the principal advisor on artificial intelligence and digital currency policy at the White House to enhance their competitive capabilities.

Donald Trump has nominated Paul Atkins to become the new Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), replacing Gary Gensler. Atkins previously served as SEC Commissioner from 2002 to 2008 and has been the co-chair of the Token Alliance of the Digital Chamber since 2017.

Research firm Bernstein claimed in their December 2 report that the SEC may consider allowing Spot Ethereum ETF holders to yield staking rewards. Currently, staking Ethereum (ETH) provides an annual return of about 3.1%, which could increase to 4-5% with increased network activity.

Grayscale Investments has filed for a Spot Solana ETF with the SEC, converting its existing Grayscale Solana Trust into a Spot ETF. Grayscale joins competitors like 21Shares, Canary Capital, VanEck, and Bitwise, who have also filed similar applications.

The Spot Ethereum ETFs have seen positive net inflows for 10 consecutive days, marking the longest streak since its launch in July 2024. On Friday, December 6, trading volume exceeded $992 million, ranking fourth in volume since the fund's launch.

The 12 Spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively hold more than 1.1 million BTC for the first time since their launch less than a year ago. This figure was the amount held by Bitcoin creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. The Blackrock IBIT fund holds more than 50% of this total.

CCData reported that cryptocurrency trading volume on centralized exchanges (CEX) reached an all-time high in November 2024, exceeding $10 trillion in spot and derivatives markets, representing a 100% increase from the previous month. This surge was driven by renewed confidence in the industry following Donald Trump's election victory.

New Hedge reported that cryptocurrency trading volumes hit a three-year high in November 2024, reaching $2.9 trillion. This is the highest trading volume recorded since May 2021, and also follows Donald Trump's election win.

CryptoQuant revealed that long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) may begin selling their Bitcoin after hitting a new high of $100,000. LTHs have made a 4x profit on their holdings, which is typical for a bull market. However, there has been no signs of intense selling yet.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) 

Bitcoin (BTC) surged to $100,000 but has faced continuous selling pressure. The price is expected to plateau in this range, with a key support level at $92,000, which could be used as an entry point. The resistance target is at $106,000. The strategy is to focus on short-term trading for profit, as the price is likely to consolidate until the end of the year.

• Support: 3,200,000 THB / 92,000 USD
• Resistance: 3,600,000 THB / 106,000 USD

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum (ETH) surged to $4,000 before facing selling pressure. The overall trend has shifted positively after breaking through a key resistance level and forming a Golden Cross. Look for entry opportunities at a price level no lower than $3,500, with the next target set to test the previous high of $4,900.

• Support: 116,000 THB / 3,500 USD
• Resistance: 152,000 THB / 4,900 USD

Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE)

Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) posted 82.03% returns in the past week. The target is to reach the previous high of $0.000000006340. However, with the price increasing sharply, it is advised to look for an entry point when the price dips, but does not fall below $0.000000004648. Be cautious of volatility due to selling pressure from those who purchased at lower prices.

• Support: 0.00000016 THB / 0.000000004648 USD
• Resistance: 0.00000025 THB / 0.000000006340 USD

SushiSwap (SUSHI)

SushiSwap (SUSHI) posted 70.13% returns in the past week, through a strong price increase. The strategy to use is to take profits during market downturns (Buy On Dip). Look to buy at the previous resistance level, which now acts as support at $2.158. The short-term resistance for profit-taking is at $3.256. Overall, the price is showing signs of  an uptrend.

• Support: 76 THB / 2.158 USD
• Resistance: 108 THB / 3.256 USD

Investment Trends

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) surged past $100,000, driven by the upcoming U.S. President Donald Trump's appointment of a new crypto-friendly SEC chairman and a cryptocurrency policy overseer at the White House, leading to speculation in the market. However, long-term Bitcoin holders have started to take profits.

Looking at the price trend for Bitcoin in the final month of the year, there is a chance it could continue moving sideways, causing the BTC Dominance index to decline. Additionally, the Total3 index is approaching a new high, signaling that the altcoin season is likely to continue throughout December 2024.

Regarding key macroeconomic announcements, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2024 will be released on Wednesday, December 11, 2024, with an expected rate of 2.6%. The inflation figure could influence the decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will meet next week. However, the FED Watch Tool suggests a 70% probability that the FOMC will lower interest rates by 0.25% in the upcoming meeting, which could further support the market.

Investment strategy: wait to buy Bitcoin at a support level not lower than $90,500 and trade for short-term profits. For altcoins, focus on Ethereum (ETH), which has the technical potential to test new highs and continues to see buying interest through ETFs. Additionally, Solana (SOL) will depend on the approval of a Spot Solana ETF in the coming year. 

References

• https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-names-david-sacks-ai-crypto-czar 
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-nominates-paul-atkins-replace-gensler-sec-chair 
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-ether-etfs-staking-may-be-imminent-bernstein 
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/grayscale-files-spot-solana-etf-sec 
• https://www.theblock.co/post/329866/u-s-spot-ether-etfs-extend-two-week-inflow-streak-as-eth-price-tops-4000 
• https://www.theblock.co/post/327831/us-spot-bitcoin-etfs-surpass-satoshis-estimated-1-1-million-btc 
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-exchange-volume-record-high-november 
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-exchanges-bumper-trading-volumes-in-november 

Disclaimers

• Cryptocurrencies and digital tokens are highly risky; investors may lose all investment money. Investors should study information carefully and make investments according to their own risk profile.
• Past returns or performance of digital assets do not guarantee future returns or performance. 

Remark: views, information, knowledge, and opinions are considered as content that come from individuals involved. They do not constitute an expression of Bitazza and its employees. Neither the email nor the content presented constitute investment advice