Week of September 30 - October 6, 2025
Deutsche Bank reported that Bitcoin (BTC) 30-day volatility has fallen to a record low, signaling growing acceptance from institutional investors. The bank estimates that by 2030, central banks may hold both gold and Bitcoin on their balance sheets, with emerging markets potentially benefiting from using Bitcoin as a reserve asset to hedge against high inflation.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has approved the direct use of stablecoins as collateral for futures and swaps trading, in collaboration with Circle, Coinbase, Ripple, and Crypto.com. The move aims to increase efficiency and transparency, reduce counterparty default risk, and support the transition toward a digital financial system.
Ethereum held on centralized exchanges (CEXs) has dropped to its lowest level since 2016, following a wave of large-scale accumulation by global institutions and funds since mid-2020. In just one month since mid-July, ETH supply has declined by over 20%.
Spot Ethereum ETFs saw nearly $800 million in outflows over the past week, marking their worst week since launching in July last year. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also faced heavy outflows, losing over $900 million in just one week.
Kazakhstan has launched a pilot project for a stablecoin called Evo (KZTE), pegged to the national currency Tenge, under the central bank’s sandbox program in partnership with Solana and Mastercard. The initiative aims to bridge the gap between the cryptocurrency market and traditional finance.
Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded strongly after a period of correction. If it can break through the resistance level at 108,600 USD, the trend may shift back toward retesting its previous all-time high. However, if it fails to break through, the price is likely to continue moving sideways, with 108,600 USD remaining a key support level to watch.
Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded from the recent low at 3,800 USD, using that level as support. If it breaks below, the downtrend may continue. In the short term, the price is set to test resistance at 4,700 USD, and if it breaks through, ETH could move back up to form a new all-time high. Look for entry opportunities when the price pulls back.
Synthetix (SNX) delivered a 69.49% return over the past week, breaking through a key resistance level at 0.960 USD and signaling a major trend reversal to the upside. This level now serves as a critical support. Traders may look for entry opportunities as long as the price holds above this support, with a short-term resistance target at 1.280 USD.
Stargate Finance (STG) gained 18.93% over the past week, with its price showing signs of a bullish reversal. A “buy on dip” strategy is suggested around the 0.1812 USD zone. However, if the price breaks below this level, a stop-loss is recommended, while profit-taking could be considered near the resistance at 0.2100 USD.
The Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) gave a speech on the economic outlook, expressing satisfaction with the current state of economic management and inflation. The market interpreted this as a signal that there may no longer be two more rate cuts this year. At the same time, stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP data led the crypto market to undergo a correction before rebounding on the back of PCE figures, which rose only modestly.
Looking ahead to Friday, October 3, 2025, the Non-Farm Payroll report will be released. The market expects 51,000 new jobs, up from 22,000 last month. If the actual number comes in lower than expected, it could be positive for the market as the FOMC may become concerned about employment and be pressured to cut rates.
In September, Bitcoin (BTC) posted a positive return of about 1%, higher than the historical average where it usually shows a loss. Historically, October has tended to bring positive returns, continuing into November.
The U.S. government is expected to avoid a shutdown, with limited impact on the crypto market. The investment strategy focuses on gradually accumulating Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and strong alternative coins (altcoins) in anticipation of a market recovery in the final quarter of the year. Key factors to watch include potential approval of altcoin ETFs and the establishment of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.